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UUK chief warns “we are not out of the woods” as ministers debate MAC response
The head of Universities UK has called for research leaders to speak up in defence of the graduate route visa. A “massive political battle” over a government-commissioned review means “we are not by any stretch out of the woods”, she warned.
In a report published on 14 May, the Migration Advisory Committee, which advises the Home Office, recommended that the graduate route should be retained in its present form, cautioning that further cuts to international student numbers would hit research and could mean some universities collapsing.
But there are signs that prime minister Rishi Sunak could ignore the recommendation, as the government looks for further measures to reduce net migration.
“British students should be the priority for our education system and universities and student visas must be used for education, not immigration,” his spokesperson told the national press.
‘Different positions in different government departments’
Universities UK chief executive Vivienne Stern (pictured below) said there was a “massive political battle going on” over the MAC review. “I don’t think we are by any stretch out of the woods,” she told Research Professional News.
There are “different positions in different government departments” over the graduate route, Stern continued. “It is so political.”
Image: Universities UK
Reports suggest that chancellor Jeremy Hunt and education secretary Gillian Keegan have lobbied internally in support of keeping the graduate route. But former ministers Robert Jenrick and Neil O’Brien are leading a Tory charge against the MAC’s findings, claiming the route has become a backdoor route for low-skilled migration.
Labour, which would also face intense political scrutiny over net migration if it were to win power, has remained silent on the MAC review and the graduate route. A lack of pressure from the opposition could potentially make it easier for the government to ignore the MAC and scale back or scrap the visa route.
Labour ‘can be the grownups here’
Stern’s message to Labour was that “you can be the grownups in the room here”. Instead of taking a course to cut international student numbers which would cause “untold damage”, Labour could come up with “a package focused on making sure we have a stable, predictable, well-managed international student regime”—one that overlaps with shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves’ “Securonomics” agenda, she argued.
In terms of the political debate over the government response to the review, there are “people who aren’t on the pitch but should be”, such as business and trade secretary Kemi Badenoch, Stern said. “This [the UK’s international student recruitment] is a huge export sector—she has a £1 trillion export target. This is worth £30 billion.”
Meanwhile, UK universities’ international student recruitment provides key cross-subsidy for research, a point the MAC emphasised in its report.
“I don’t know why the research community isn’t out there more given that £5.6bn of the research [spending] in the UK is from universities themselves,” Stern said, highlighting the role high-profile science leaders, alongside R&D businesses, could have in stressing the importance of the graduate route.
Party of evidence?
Speaking to Research Professional News, Simon Marginson, professor of higher education at the University of Oxford, said it was “very good that the MAC has not allowed itself to be drawn into policy making that is shaped by populist anti-immigration politics”.
“This may not stop the government pitching to the red wall seats by closing the postgraduate work route, but if so, it will be clear that the decision is entirely driven by politics without policy, and that it is a bad decision,” Marginson said.
Stephen Curry, college consul at Imperial College London, pointed out that Michelle Donelan, secretary of state for science, innovation and technology, said in her 2023 party conference address that the Conservatives were “the party of evidence”.
“Now that the evidence is in, I look forward to hearing her full-throated support for the UK graduate visa,” Curry said. “If not, it will be the final confirmation that this government cares nothing for the financial health of Britain’s amazing universities.”
Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute, said it was a question of whether ministers “want evidence-based policy or ideology-based policy”.
“Both roads are open to them but I suspect they might still take the wrong one,” he said.
MAC speed
At a press conference on 14 May, Research Professional News asked MAC chair Brian Bell if he believed his committee’s recommendations would be adopted by the government.
“Let’s be honest, we know why this was a rapid review [as opposed to a more long-term review],” he said. “It was a rapid review because the government wants to make [immigration policy decisions] in the next two weeks.”
The Office for National Statistics is due to publish national net migration data next week, and it is thought that the government may be looking for policies that will help temper any negative stories that emerge from that data.
“I have no idea what the government will do,” Bell continued, adding that it will be a cross-government discussion. “We make the best recommendation on the evidence that we have reviewed and that that is what we have done. It is entirely up to the government to decide whether it accepts our recommendation or not…it is not for the likes of me to say what we should do.”
The government said it is still considering its response to the MAC review.
Opposite numbers
Universities are also asking how a future Labour government would act if the government does act to reform the graduate route visa or abolish it altogether.
“If that happens the real question will be ‘will Labour reverse the decision?’,” said Marginson “There is a real possibility that a Keir Starmer government would keep the door closed for a couple of years at least.
“Labour 2024 is in a very different place to New Labour 1997, which came in with a mandate for sweeping transformation [and] gave Blair much scope in the early years, but was bound to lead to disappointment in the end. Labour this time seems determined to offer continuity in the transition period, which will extend into the first half of its term.”
Labour has not responded officially to the MAC review. But one Labour politician told Research Professional News he welcomed the conclusions, and urged ministers not to ignore the committee’s recommendations.
“The Migration Advisory Committee conclusions are very welcome, and are consistent with the view that any objective observer would reach,” said Daniel Zeichner, MP for Cambridge and chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for universities.
“The government should respect their findings, and support universities rather than constantly seeking ways to undermine highly successful UK institutions.”